The Palgrave Econolog - latest stories (min 3 posts)

European Stress Tests and more

2010-09-08T22:50:07Z

European Stress Tests and more at Calculated Risk

From the WSJ tonight: Europe's Bank Stress Tests Minimized Debt RiskWe've discussed this several times - as an example, in Part 5D of the sovereign debt series, "some investor guy" wrote:Q1. Was there much sovereign stress in the European bank stress tests?NO.

European 'Stress Tests' Blurred Risky Debt at DealBook : The European "stress tests," that looked at the viability of the continent's major banks under a number of hypothetical scenarios, undersold the amount of potentially risky government debt held by some of the institutions tested, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Comment on Anglo Announcement: A Multiple Systems Failure by kieranfromclon at Comments for The Irish Economy : “I dont think so. It smacks more of not liking the answers they were getting from Europe and a culture prevalent in Ireland of pulling strokes.”Pulling strokes eh? Guess which party would be good at that…The problem is that although Mrs Murphy

European Bank Stress Tests - Banks Didn't Tell the Whole Truth at The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind One Dime at a Time : What a surprise. It seems when Europe ran it's bank stress tests, they only didn't report a few billion here and there.Market Watch:Europe's highly touted stress tests of major banks earlier this summer understated holdings of potentially risky government debt,

Still ticking at Free exchange : MARKETS around the world have been a little shaky today, thanks largely to a wave of unnerving news out of Europe. Like:Banks led stocks lower on concern European lenders will require more capital to compensate for holdings of bonds in the regions weakest economies.

European splash of reality, again at The Big Picture : Following last week’s beat the economic #, (as opposed to great data) pre holiday, beginning of the month stock market rally, the WSJ throws some cold water on it with another jolt of reality that Europe’s sovereign issues are far from resolved.

This Is From The Wall Street Journal at Alea : Anything wrong with the graph?Europe’s Bank Stress Tests Minimized Debt Risk Useful link ==> Videos, worksheets, stories and songs to help Grade 5 students (and WSJ journos) learn how to find the area of squares

Links 9/7/10 at naked capitalism : Study examines association between urban living and psychotic disorders PhysOrgFreakonomics: The Movie Out Today on iTunes Only FreakonomicsMoney Can Buy Happiness, Study Finds — But Only Up To $75,000 Associated Press. Even though the Nobel Prize winner

John Cassidys Shot at Bernankes Lehman Testimony Goes Wide of the Mark

2010-09-08T22:13:14Z

John Cassidys Shot at Bernankes Lehman Testimony Goes Wide of the Mark at naked capitalism

Amongst the items coming out of the FCIC hearings last week were new docs that revealed exactly how over-reliant LEH was on daily, short term funding to cover their longer terms costs. It was a recipe for disaster, a trailer park in search of a tornado.Here

Should we let housing prices fall? at Marginal Revolution : Many smart people say we should. It seems increasingly clear that we must. For how long can the government prop them up? Are we never to have a private market in mortgages again?Yet what happens if we let them fall? Arguably

What a Mess at Macro and Other Market Musings : Dhaval Joshi awhile back discussed the $4 trillion dollar mortgage problem:Can the US economy really return to business as usual when it has 4 million houses surplus to requirement, when 1 out of 4 mortgages are in negative equity, and when by our calculation,

The big housing question at Free exchange : EVERYONE is linking to Tyler Cowen:It seems increasingly clear that we must [let housing prices fall]. For how long can the government prop them up? Are we never to have a private market in mortgages again?Yet what happens if we let them fall? Arguably

Comment on Ten Year Bond Spread at New High by Pat Donnelly at Comments for The Irish Economy : As the debt increases, it is inevitable that those lending will increase their price for that “privilege”.Slashing some debt would enable that premium to decline, by the reverse token. Calling the lenders “the market” confuses the point.

Lehman: Doomed By Short Term Funding at The Big Picture : Amongst the items coming out of the FCIC hearings last week were new docs that revealed exactly how over-reliant LEH was on daily, short term funding to cover their longer terms costs. It was a recipe for disaster, a trailer park in search of a tornado.Here

No Increase In Social Security Age Eligibility!

2010-09-08T19:58:42Z

No Increase In Social Security Age Eligibility! at EconoSpeak

Illegal immigrants are helping to finance your retirement:The contributions by unauthorized immigrants to Social Security ... are much larger than previously known... Stephen C. Goss, the chief actuary of the Social Security Administration and someone who enjoys

Dealing with Social Security at Democracy in America : MATHHEA HARVEY'S collection "Modern Life" includes a very short poem called "A Theory of Generations". In the New York Times Book Review, David Orr called it a "coy production", but I really like it. It goes like this:You're it.You're it.You're it.America's

Why 'Nothing' is STILL the 2nd Best Plan for Social Security: and Why YOUR Plan Probably Sucks at Angry Bear : by Bruce WebbA curious feature of the battle over Social Security is that it is almost always a battle of adjectives and adverbs and not numbers, In particular almost everyone agrees that 'Nothing' is not a plan, People are not always clear on the consequences

links for 2010-09-07 at Economist's View : Listening To The Bond Market -- Or Not - Paul KrugmanMaking a Market for Pollution - Scientific AmericanDon't raise the Social Security retirement age cont'd - Ezra KleinKansas City, Dallas Feds Called for Rate Increase - Real Time EconomicsThe house price

The Social Security gambit at The Incidental Economist (Posts) : With Social Security inexplicably still in the news, I thought I’d release this post from my queue, in which it has been sitting for weeks.Frank Curmudgeon of the Bad Money Advice blog succinctlyexplains an amazing loophole in the rules for collecting

Stop Calling it the Retirement Age, by Arnold Kling at EconLog : Ezra Klein writes, there is one thing that both parties increasingly seem to agree on: You should work longer. Klein's thinking is that people do not want to work longer, so raising the Social Security "retirement age" is a bad idea. His conclusion does not

"Making Social Security Less Generous Isn't the Answer" at Economist's View : Ezra Klein: Making Social Security less generous isn't the answer, by Ezra Klein, Commentary, Washington Post: ...Raising the Social Security retirement age has become as close to a consensus position as exists in American politics. ... And for a while, I agreed...

How Illegal Immigrants are Helping Social Security at Economist's View : Illegal immigrants are helping to finance your retirement:The contributions by unauthorized immigrants to Social Security ... are much larger than previously known... Stephen C. Goss, the chief actuary of the Social Security Administration and someone who enjoys

BPs Deepwater Horizon: Accident Investigation Report

2010-09-08T19:41:00Z

BPs Deepwater Horizon: Accident Investigation Report at Knowledge Problem

Five faillures one after the other.Rachel Slajda:BP Investigation Released: The Oil Spill Was Everybody's Fault | TPMMuckraker: BP today released the report of its own investigation into what caused the Deepwater Horizon to explode and leak millions of barrels

BP Report: Analysts React at WSJ.com: MarketBeat Blog - WSJ.com : BP shares are up more than 3%, after the troubled petroleum giant released its official report recounting how the Deepwater Horizon disaster came to pass. Here's what analysts have to say.

BP's Deepwater Oil Spill - What will the Relief Well Find? - and Open Thread at The Oil Drum - Discussions about Energy and Our Future : Update: Link to new BP report on results of internal investigation into the causes of the accident.With Labor Day weekend, and the recovery of the blowout preventer from the Deepwater Horizon well in the Gulf of Mexico, the remaining parts of the operation

BP's Deepwater Horizon Accident Report Disperses Blame, Glosses Over Big Questions at TreeHugger : BP has just released it's report on the events leading up to the explosion on the Deepwater Horizon and subsequent record-breaking oil spill. As was expected, BP attempts to spread blame across all the companies involved and says "a complex and interlinked

BP Investigation Released: The Oil Spill Was Everybody's Fault at Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Economist Brad DeLong's Fair, Balanced, and Reality-Based Semi-Daily Journal : Five faillures one after the other.Rachel Slajda:BP Investigation Released: The Oil Spill Was Everybody's Fault | TPMMuckraker: BP today released the report of its own investigation into what caused the Deepwater Horizon to explode and leak millions of barrels

Mark Hurds Oracle Move: Analysts Weigh-in On Saga

2010-09-08T18:35:18Z

Mark Hurds Oracle Move: Analysts Weigh-in On Saga at WSJ.com: MarketBeat Blog - WSJ.com

Oracle shares are up roughly 6% after the company hired former H-P chief Mark Hurd as co-president and appointed him to its board of directors.

HP and Oracles lawyers worked through Labor Day at footnoted.org : By now, you’ve no doubt eitherread or heard about Hewlett-Packard’s (HPQ) lawsuit against former golden child CEO Mark Hurd that was filed yesterday morning (you can read the actual complaint here). And perhaps, you’ve even seen some of the

HP breaks its own news at Talking Biz News : Taylor Buley of Forbes.com notes that Hewlett-Packard broke the news Tuesday that it was suing its former CEO Mark Hurd by posting a story and the lawsuit on its own site.Buley writes, “Usually this would mark the moment when I urgently ask Forbes researcher

HP Sues Mark Hurd After Hurd Joins Oracle at Business Pundit : Hewlett-Packard filed a lawsuit against former CEO Mark Hurd today. Yesterday, Hurd agreed to join Oracle as co-president. HP claims Hurd is violating his confidentiality agreement and will reveal the HP’s trade secrets to competitor Oracle. The agreement

Hurds Move to Oracle: Do Business Ethics Matter? at WSJ.com: Deal Journal - WSJ.com : Count Oracle investors as among the most excited about Mark Hurd joining the firm.

H-P Sues Oracle Over Hurd Hire at WSJ.com: Law Blog - WSJ.com : Well it sure didn't take long for Hewlett-Packard Co. to formally object to Sunday's news that Oracle Corp. had hired former H-P CEO Mark Hurd.

Oracle Hires Hurd, Stock Surges at WSJ.com: MarketBeat Blog - WSJ.com : Oracle shares are up roughly 6% after the company hired former H-P chief Mark Hurd as co-president and appointed him to its board of directors.

The Great Divergence in Pictures [Client work: Slate]

2010-09-08T18:19:42Z

The Great Divergence in Pictures [Client work: Slate] at Visualizing Economics

My latest project is a collaboration with Timothy Noah on a slide show for his article, The United States of Inequality. You can take a look at the slide show: The Great Divergence in Pictures on Slate.com.If are want even more income graphics, make sure to

America's Increasing Inequality and warnings from 2 500 yrs Ago at Institute of Knowledge : America's inequality has of late resurfaced, with worrying concerns, hence why the American model can never be a model for a free world. Inequality of income tells you a real story, far more than does say having elections, having elections is often a gimmick

Health Affairs Covers Malpractice

2010-09-08T18:09:16Z

Health Affairs Covers Malpractice at The Incidental Economist (Posts)

I’m only upset I didn’t get to contribute. Anyway.The September issue of Health Affairs focuses on medical malpractice in the United States, and there are a number of pieces in there worth reading. I’m going to discuss just a few. Unfortunately,

Defensive Medicine: A Non-Factor in Escalating Health Care Costs? at naked capitalism : When analysts and commentators go through their laundry list of what ails the hopelessly overpriced US health care system, one of the most commonly cited reasons is the cost of “defensive medicine” meaning both the cost of medical malpractice policies

The odd logic of tort reform ctd. at The Incidental Economist (Posts) : Some of you remain unconvinced. You are sure that tort reform (capping damages) is at least the best way to get a handle on high malpractice premiums. I started with Texas, so let’s move on to California. I’d tell that story, but Kevin Drum already

National Costs of the Medical Liability System at Capital Gains and Games - Washington, Wall Street and Everything in Between : In this month's issue of Health Affairs is an article by Michelle Mello, Amitabh Chandra, Atul Gawande, and David Studdert that estimates the national costs of medical liability. Here's what they find:Concerns about reducing the rate of growth of health

Offensive medicine at Democracy in America : HALFWAY through the heated battle over health reform last year, Barack Obama delivered an impassioned address to a joint session of Congress. In an effort to win bipartisan support, he raised the prospect of reforming the controversial system of medical tort.

"The Odd Logic of Tort Reform" at Economist's View : Aaron Carroll summarizes recent research on tort reform as a means of controlling health care costs: Health Affairs covers malpractice, by Aaron Carroll: ...The September issue of Health Affairs focuses on medical malpractice in the United States, and there

The odd logic of tort reform at The Incidental Economist (Posts) : Well, I seem to have touched a nerve. I’m getting a lot of email telling me I’m off the mark when it comes to tort reform. Some of this email is coming from physicians who claim to usually agree with me. You’re sure I’m wrong here. You’re

The Two-Track Economy

2010-09-08T18:00:49Z

The Two-Track Economy at The Bonddad Blog

After a morning which saw many investors waiting for a 1:30 pm update on the US economy finally the numbers for US employment and unemployment arrived. I will write on them in more detail later but the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave its own verdict by opening

How to be a Successful Investor in an Immutable Marketplace at The Daily Reckoning : As the Labor Day holiday ended, so did the stock markets holiday from underlying economic trends. Last week, the stock market was all about better than expected. On the first day this new week, however, the market was all about worse than hoped.Last week, for

The true state of the US economy and her likely short-term future growth path. at Notayesmanseconomics's Blog : After a morning which saw many investors waiting for a 1:30 pm update on the US economy finally the numbers for US employment and unemployment arrived. I will write on them in more detail later but the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave its own verdict by opening

A Bipartisan Stimulus Plan

2010-09-08T17:44:37Z

A Bipartisan Stimulus Plan at Tax Foundation - Tax Foundation's "Tax Policy Blog"

More than any other class, including Republicans in general, voters have a decided preference for non-incumbent GOP challengers. Moreover, three in four believe an influx of new members would improve Congress, says Gallup.Please consider Americans Most Likely

Newest piece at Fox News: Another Proposal From Obama to Throw Your Money Down the Drain at John Lott's Website : My newest piece at Fox News starts this way:After focusing on health care and various regulatory bills for over a year, Democrats are trying to convince voters that they do care about the economy and the high unemployment rate. With the November elections looming

The Fall Campaign Begins... at Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Economist Brad DeLong's Fair, Balanced, and Reality-Based Semi-Daily Journal : Marc Ambinder:Obama Writes His Thesis Statement: The president is for a set of tax cuts for businesses and spending that would step up the pace of the economic recovery. In doing so, he's given Democrats something to run on. As much as the party wants

Washington Post Poll Shows Democrats in Trouble, But Say Republicans Aren't Offering Clear Alternative at John Lott's Website : An increasing number of people say that the economy is getting worse.Among all voters, 47 percent say they would back the Republican in their congressional district if the election were held now, while 45 percent would vote for the Democrat. Any GOP advantage

The wacky fringes of politics at John Lott's Website : I often wonder whether many of the responses are simply my people expressing their political frustrations as opposed to things that they actually believe. For example, if people say that they believe Obama is a Muslim, is it because they just dislike him so

I think that it is too easy to be overly optimistic at this stage at John Lott's Website : From Charlie Cook writing for the National Journal:Privately, some Democratic pollsters say that they are routinely seeing districts where Democratic incumbents are running only even with relatively unknown GOP challengers. In other districts where the Republican

Feasible Stimulus Politics ? at Angry Bear : Robert WaldmannObama proposes an additional $ 50 billion for infrastructure. He ignored my proposal to mail a $ 500 check to every US family this month. The proposal is better policy than my proposal. If implemented it wouldn't help Democrats in November, since

Considering Better Alternatives to Extension of the Bush Tax Cuts for More Stimulus at EconomistMom.com : The key word in the title of this post, from my perspective, is “alternatives”–not “additions.” The Obama Administration is reportedly considering some new proposals for a variety of business tax cuts that they believe would be

Who is most likely to destroy Social Security and Medicare? at John Lott's Website : Democrats cut $500 billion from Medicare and it is Republicans who are going to destroy it? With the huge deficits created by Democrats, that will be what threatens Social Security the most. If the deficits were still around $160 billion per year as they were

Can't Anybody Here Play This Game?: Duncan Black Would Make a Better Press Secretary at Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Economist Brad DeLong's Fair, Balanced, and Reality-Based Semi-Daily Journal : Duncan Black has a suggestion:Eschaton: Here's An Idea: Maybe the message should be "we're going to do something about it" or "we'd do something about it if those bastards would let us."And no more bank shot policies.Jackie Calmes:On Economy, Democrats Face

Voters Strongly Favor Non-Incumbent GOP Newcomers in Midterm Elections at Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis : More than any other class, including Republicans in general, voters have a decided preference for non-incumbent GOP challengers. Moreover, three in four believe an influx of new members would improve Congress, says Gallup.Please consider Americans Most Likely

Government in the Mortgage Business, by Arnold Kling

2010-09-08T17:36:33Z

Government in the Mortgage Business, by Arnold Kling at EconLog

The New York Times reports, "This is subprime lending done right," said John Taylor, president of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, an umbrella group for 600 community organizations, and a staunch critic of the lending industry. He is talking about

On Tonight's Special Edition of The Kudlow Report at Kudlow's Money Politic$ : Tonight at 7pm ET on CNBC:FREE MARKET 12-STEP PATH TO PROSPERITY:OBAMA'S ECONOMIC PUSH- CNBCS Eamon Javers reports.IS THIS A TURNING POINT IN CORPORATE TAX CUTS? SHOULD GOP SEIZE THE MOMENT FOR GOOD TAX REFORM? ISN'T THIS BULLISH?- Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R) TexasTHE

Government in the Mortgage Business, by Arnold Kling at EconLog : The New York Times reports, "This is subprime lending done right," said John Taylor, president of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, an umbrella group for 600 community organizations, and a staunch critic of the lending industry. He is talking about

Wisdom on Comments

2010-09-08T16:49:06Z

Wisdom on Comments at Overcoming Bias

Wisdom from Eli Dourado:On small blogs, people typically comment when they have something to contribute or ask that is relevant to the post. These are frequently of high quality. …On more popular blogs, this positive commenting dynamic is confounded by

Is the Blogosphere a Common-Pool Resource? at Eli Dourado : Pete Boettke asks for essays addressing this question; I’ll give him a blog post instead.From the content of Pete’s post, it’s clear that he’s not asking if the blogosphere is a common-pool resource; rather, he’s asking about the

Greshams Law for Blog Comments at Cheap Talk : Eli Dourado writesThe commenting dynamic is very different on small blogs than it is on popular blogs. On small blogs, people typically comment when they have something to contribute or ask that is relevant to the post. These are frequently of high quality

Why do I receive high quality comments? at Chris Blattman : On small blogs, people typically comment when they have something to contribute or ask that is relevant to the post. These are frequently of high quality. On more popular blogs, this positive commenting dynamic is confounded by the presence of eyeballs. Every

The True Cost of the Iraq War

2010-09-08T16:22:22Z

The True Cost of the Iraq War at Angry Bear

originally posted at Economistview by Mark ThomaStiglitz and Bilmes: The True Cost of the Iraq WarJoseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes:The true cost of the Iraq war: $3 trillion and beyond, by Joseph E. Stiglitz and Linda J. Bilmes, Commentary, Washington Post:

The Hidden Costs of War at Welker's Wikinomics Blog : This past weekend, the Obama administration officially put an end to US combat in Iraq. Seven years after the invasion, both politicians and economists are looking back and asking themselves, was the invasion into Iraq and the ensuing occupation of coalition

Stiglitz and Bilmes: The True Cost of the Iraq War at Economist's View : Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes: The true cost of the Iraq war: $3 trillion and beyond, by Joseph E. Stiglitz and Linda J. Bilmes, Commentary, Washington Post: Writing in these pages in early 2008, we put the total cost to the United States of the Iraq war

Uncertainty and the Cyclical vs Structural Unemployment Debate

2010-09-08T16:08:42Z

Uncertainty and the Cyclical vs Structural Unemployment Debate at Macroeconomic Resilience

There are two schools of thought on the primary cause of our current unemployment problem: Some claim that the unemployment is cyclical (low aggregate demand) whereas others think it’s structural (mismatch in the labour market). The “Structuralists”

"The Dramatic Jump in the Actual Unemployment Rate [is] Largely a Cyclical Phenomenon" at Economist's View : Minnesota Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota says once again that there's little that monetary policy can do for the unemployment problem because it's largely structural (here's Brad DeLong's reaction). However, researchers at the Cleveland Fed say their estimates

Reactions to Obama's Business Tax Break at Calculated Risk : The Obama administration is proposing that businesses be able to expense new investment in plants and equipment, through 2011, instead of writing off the investment over several years.Catherine Rampell at the NY Times Economix provides a nice summary: Reactions

A Small Step in the Right Direction at Greg Mankiw's Blog : The Obama administration is now proposing that businesses be allowed to expense investment expenditures. That is, for purposes of calculating taxable income, businesses would be able to fully and immediately deduct the cost of equipment, rather than

Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover July 2010

2010-09-08T14:55:20Z

Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover July 2010 at Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and labor turnover (JOLT) showing that private non-farm job openings increased 7.33% since June and rose 33.09% above the level seen in July 2009, job hires increased

Job Openings Up by 744,000 (30%) Since Last Year at CARPE DIEM : Today the BLS released its latest figures on Job Openings and Labor Turnover, and reported that job openings increased by 178,000 in July, following decreases of 75,000 in May and 363,000 in May. However, since the first of the year job openings have increased

BLS: Job Openings increases in July, Low Labor Turnover at Calculated Risk : Note: The temporary decennial Census hiring and layoffs has distorted this series over the last few months. The total separations has increased, but that includes the temporary Census workers that were let go.From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover SummaryThere

Beveridge Curve Balancing Act: July 2010 at Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog : Looking deeper at todays Job Openings and Labor Turnover report you can see that while the unemployment rate is showing notable initial signs of establishing a peak, the job openings rate is showing an equal but opposite troughing dynamic.Further, the latest

Obama Announces Transportation Infrastructure Spending Plan

2010-09-08T14:10:00Z

Obama Announces Transportation Infrastructure Spending Plan at Green Car Congress

With a multiplier of 2, $50 billion in the first year is 0.3% on the unemployment rate--and it's not clear if we can ramp up an extra $50 billion of infrastructure spending in the first year.Don't get me wrong: boosting federal infrastructure spending is almost

National Infrastructure Bank versus democracy at Democracy in America : STEVEN PEARLSTEIN argues that taxes ought to be raised to pre-Bush levels, and that the revenue gained thereby should be used to fund a "National Infrastructure Bank". For several decades, policymakers have tossed around the idea of a National Infrastructure

Obama Aims $50 Billion Stimulus at Nation's Transit at TreeHugger : Image via California High-Speed Rail Authority In his Labor Day speech two days ago, the president announced plans for a $50 billion stimulus package that would take aim at updating the country's lagging transportation infrastructure. He called for Congress

Morning Notes For September 7th 2010 at Trader's Narrative : The following is a guest post by a buy-side analyst working in a US asset management firm. The author’s comments are in italics. I welcome you feedback in the comments:While the August employment report surprised consensus on the upside, revisions to

Obama Calls for $50 Billion Public Works Plan at The Transportationist : NY Times says Obama Calls for $50 Billion Public Works Plan : "" It is not clear from the Times article whether this is truly additional spending, a temporary stopgap since the previous authorization has lapsed, or the first phase of the new transportation

Obama's Infrastructure And Business Investment Plan Would Take A While To Show Much Effect at Capital Gains and Games - Washington, Wall Street and Everything in Between : Yesterday, President Obama announced a six-year $50 billion program to rebuild 150,000 miles of highways, to lay and maintain 4,000 miles of rail lines, to restore 150 miles of runways, and to put the NextGen air traffic control system in place. Tomorrow in

The proposal at Free exchange : YESTERDAY, Barack Obama announced proposals for a series of new stimulative measures designed to provide support for a flagging economic recovery. He will detail these proposals in a speech tomorrow, but the broad outlines are already clear.One aspect of the

Obama Wants to Spend Big On Transportation Now at Out of Control : While most of us enjoyed Labor Day as a rare Monday at home from work, President Obama was in Milwaukee and interrupted our barbecues with, of all things, a speech on transportation! He proposed an ambitious $50 billion infrastructure spending plan he argues

NOT an Immediate Jobs Program But a Proposal for Infrastructure Investment at Out of Control : In Milwaukee, Wisconsin, today the President proposed more infrastructure funding and some reforms to the surface and aviation programs. Supposedly it included a “long term vision” for the future investments in transportation infrastructure.

Obama to Propose $50 Billion in Insfrastructure Spending at The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind One Dime at a Time : President Obama is proposing a $50 Billion Infrastructure Plan:Part of the plan being released today calls for the funding of a permanent infrastructure bank that would invest in projects most critical to the economy. The up-front investment would go to the

The Bush Tax Cuts and Infrastructure Spending at Economist's View : The Economist asks:Should the Bush tax cuts be extended?Here are the answers, including one from me:Tom Gallagher Yes, but only for a short period Michael Bordo Yes, their benefits outweigh their costs Alberto Alesina Maintain the cuts and reduce spending to

Obama Economic Policy: Yet Another "Obama Bunts" Edition at Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Economist Brad DeLong's Fair, Balanced, and Reality-Based Semi-Daily Journal : With a multiplier of 2, $50 billion in the first year is 0.3% on the unemployment rate--and it's not clear if we can ramp up an extra $50 billion of infrastructure spending in the first year.Don't get me wrong: boosting federal infrastructure spending is almost

Obama's Investment Equivalent of "Cash for Clunkers"

2010-09-08T14:00:30Z

Obama's Investment Equivalent of "Cash for Clunkers" at Tax Foundation - Tax Foundation's "Tax Policy Blog"

The Obama administration seems poised to do to business investment what the ill-conceived federal policies aimed at helping the auto and housing markets did - incentivize short-term activity at the expense of future sales while failing to improve conditions

Hot Potato at Free Market Mojo : Tax Foundation President Scott Hodge opines on President Obama’s possible attempt at spurring capital investment:The Obama administration seems poised to do to business investment what the ill-conceived federal policies aimed at helping the auto and housing

The Culture That Is Russia

2010-09-08T13:09:42Z

The Culture That Is Russia at Free Market Mojo

Speaking as the Russian government announces plan to raise duty on alcohol and cigarettes, Alexei Kudrin said that by smoking a pack, you are giving more to help solve social problems such as boosting demographics, developing other social services and upholding

The Culture That Is Russia at Free Market Mojo : Speaking as the Russian government announces plan to raise duty on alcohol and cigarettes, Alexei Kudrin said that by smoking a pack, you are giving more to help solve social problems such as boosting demographics, developing other social services and upholding

A Bold Tax Plan: 'People Should Smoke and Drink More at TaxProf Blog : The Telegraph, 'People Should Smoke and Drink More, Says Russian Finance Minister: Russias finance minister has told people to smoke and drink more, explaining that higher consumption would help lift tax revenues for spending on social services. Speaking as

Welcome to economics, all you students (and aid workers)

2010-09-08T13:02:26Z

Welcome to economics, all you students (and aid workers) at Aid Watch

Ed Pinto writes, Here's my proposal to bring Congress's penchant for imprudent lending to a quick end: All congressional pension assets should be invested in funds backed solely by the high- risk loans mandated by federal housing legislation. I have a feeling

William Easterly introduces Principles of Economics at Geary Behavioural Economics Blog : A nice rant from William Easterly on introducing students to Economics. Below is slightly out of context but gives a good feel. The boredom of economics education also has the unfortunate effect of making economics scarce in aid work, given the number

Morning Reading, by Arnold Kling at EconLog : Ed Pinto writes, Here's my proposal to bring Congress's penchant for imprudent lending to a quick end: All congressional pension assets should be invested in funds backed solely by the high- risk loans mandated by federal housing legislation. I have a feeling

shortorlong: over-55s with no pension, no savings, just massive debts http://bit.ly/9aMFaf#ixzz0yvmfQbvJ

2010-09-08T11:27:23Z

shortorlong: over-55s with no pension, no savings, just massive debts http://bit.ly/9aMFaf#ixzz0yvmfQbvJ at Twitter / shortorlong

shortorlong: over-55s with no pension, no savings, just massive debts http://bit.ly/9aMFaf#ixzz0yvmfQbvJ

Daily Mail: Too poor to retire: The over-55s with no pension, no savings, just massive debts at House Price Crash News Blog : What happened to this Home-Owner-Ist rhetoric about the older generations having behaved responsibly and the young being blamed for everything?

Stocks fall as European yield spreads widen

2010-09-08T08:55:36Z

Stocks fall as European yield spreads widen at The Skeptical Speculator

MARKETS around the world have been a little shaky today, thanks largely to a wave of unnerving news out of Europe. Like:Banks led stocks lower on concern European lenders will require more capital to compensate for holdings of bonds in the regions weakest economies.

European Credit Stress Returns With Vengeance - Irish, Portuguese Bond Spread at All Time High - Yen Soars - Gold Hits All Time High at Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis : The risk aversion trade was back in play today with treasuries, the dollar, the Yen, and gold all rallying while the Euro and European government bonds (except German Bunds) were under significant pressure.Please consider Stocks, Irish Bonds Drop, Gold, Yen

Government-Bond Yield Gap at The Big Picture : Dhaval Joshi is clearly in the deflation camp. Bloomberg’s Chart of the Day references his recent RAB Capital sovereign debt commentary as suggesting bond yields are set to “massively collapse.”Here’s an excerpt:“Yields on U.S.

The August Employment Report

2010-09-08T08:13:17Z

The August Employment Report at Capital Gains and Games - Washington, Wall Street and Everything in Between

The latest from the BLS on the employment situation is more of the same. There was essentially no net job growth -- a decline of 54,000 consisting of a fall in government employment as Census workers finished up that was not quite offset by a rise in

Snapshots of the Employment Situation, August 2010 at Econbrowser : I thought I'd add a few observations on the latest employment report (other reports here: [NYT], [WSJ RTE/Izzo] [CR], [Economist's View]). First, by an alternate measure, employment is improving more rapidly than the standard nonfarm employment (NFP) measure.

The US President isnt trying hard enough at billy blog : Answer: Probably not! Elections bring out all sorts of revelations and epiphanies. We have seen that in spades in the last few weeks as the two main parties, both rejected as viable governments by the electors have struggled to lure the all important casting

"Destitute Index" at Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis : In response to Reflections on the "Recovery" reader "Thomas" has an interesting question regarding U6 unemployment that I would like to share.Thomas writes ...Dear Mish,Always look forward to your analysis. One small question. How many living, breathing, frustrated,

Summary for Week ending Sept 4th at Calculated Risk : It was a busy week ...August Employment Report: 60K Jobs ex-Census, 9.6% Unemployment RateThe BLS reported:1) Nonfarm payroll employment declined 54,000 in August.2) however Decennial census employment declined 114,000.3) so ex-Census, payrolls increased 60,000.4)

Unemployment Rate and Level of Education at Calculated Risk : Another graph by request ... Click on graph for larger image in new window.This graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older).Note that the unemployment rate increased sharply for all four categories in 2008

Duration of Unemployment at Calculated Risk : An update by request ... Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the duration of unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force. The graph shows the number of unemployed in four categories: less than 5 week, 6 to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and

NFIB: Small Businesses Still Not Hiring at Calculated Risk : From NFIB: Small Businesses Still Not HiringWilliam C. Dunkelberg, chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Business [said] In August, most firms did not change employment, but for those that did, 11 percent (up one point from July) increased

Peter Orszag Breaking Free from the Bush/Obama Tax Cuts

2010-09-08T07:34:54Z

Peter Orszag Breaking Free from the Bush/Obama Tax Cuts at EconomistMom.com

Headline writers, journalists, and bloggers are in a frenzy today over former OMB Director Peter Orszag's apparent disagreement with his former boss (Pres. Obama) over what to do about the expiring Bush tax cuts. But a closer look at what Orszag wrote in the

Orszag v. Obama on Extending the Bush Tax Cuts at TaxProf Blog : New York Times op-ed, One Nation, Two Deficits, by Peter Orszag (Director, Office of Management and Budget, 2009-10): The nation faces a nasty dual deficit problem: a painful jobs deficit in the near term and an unsustainable budget deficit over the medium

Orszag Hints that Health Care Reform Bill May Not Have Significant Long-Term Deficit-Reducing Effects After All at Tax Foundation - Tax Foundation's "Tax Policy Blog" : In his now famous New York Times piece on Tuesday, former OMB Director Peter Orszag made the following statement regarding why over the medium-term, spending isn't the only way to solve the medium-term fiscal deficit problem and that revenues have to be part

Peter Orszag and political reality at Democracy in America : FROM January 2009 until last month, Peter Orszag was director of the Office of Management and Budget, and while his views on quantitative factual matters were presumably straight-up, his public recommendations were surely constrained by legislative strategy

Should the Bush tax cuts be extended? at Free exchange : EARLIER in the year, as debt worries wracked European financial markets, one might have thought that the expiration of most of the Bush tax cuts was a foregone conclusion. As recently as July, Barack Obama was planning on allowing the cuts for top tax brackets

Trial Balloon for Obama on Bush tax cuts at Capital Gains and Games - Washington, Wall Street and Everything in Between : Peter Orszag, who stepped down just as White House budget director just a month ago, appears to have just floated an important trial balloon on a potential Democratic strategy for the Bush tax cuts. It comes in the form of Orszag's debut column for the New

Peter Orszag is Not an Economist at The New Ledger » Markets & Policy : For some reason, I had thought Peter Orszag was an economist. But his arguments in today’s New York Times at every turn are based only on political calculations, particularly as regards the difficulty of getting Dems and Reps to agree on anything. His

Budget Deficit is Real, But Job Deficit is the Wrong Term to Use at The Austrian Economists : |Peter Boettke|Peter Orszag in the NYT argues that the US is facing a nasty duel deficit problem -- a short run job deficit that is painful, and a budget deficit that is unsustainable in the medium to long run. Is this use of language helpful at all?

Peter Orszag's First Column at The Future of Capitalism :: Writings : President Obama's former budget director, Peter Orszag, publishes his debut New York Times column today, calling for extending the Bush tax cuts for two years and then letting them expire. He writes: Despite a dire fiscal outlook, many progressives want

Peter Orszag on Fiscal Policy at Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Economist Brad DeLong's Fair, Balanced, and Reality-Based Semi-Daily Journal : Peter Orszag writes for the New York Times. He goes off his Obama administration position, calling for only a two-year extension of the expiring Bush tax reductions, and for America to fight the recession now and fight the long-term deficit later.I wish he

Did Peter Orszag Really Break from the Administration's Position on Expiring Tax Cuts? at Tax Foundation - Tax Foundation's "Tax Policy Blog" : Headline writers, journalists, and bloggers are in a frenzy today over former OMB Director Peter Orszag's apparent disagreement with his former boss (Pres. Obama) over what to do about the expiring Bush tax cuts. But a closer look at what Orszag wrote in the

Krugman on the 1938 crash

2010-09-08T05:08:12Z

Krugman on the 1938 crash at John Lott's Website

In a deep recession, "the usual rules dont apply":1938 in 2010, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: Heres the situation: The U.S. economy has been crippled by a financial crisis. The presidents policies have limited the damage, but they were too

Comparing 1938 Depression with 2010 at Mostly Economics : Paul Krugman pointshow we are facing similarsituation as seen in 1938. Even then FDR pulled out fiscal stimulusleading to second round of depression. And now Obama is facing the same situation.Heres the situation: The U.S. economy has been crippled by a financial

How Can the Private Sector Grow? Let the Government Shrink at Supply and Demand (in that order) : Copyright, The New York Times CompanyStimulus advocates have offered the United States engagement in World War II as evidence that government spending can end a depression and expand an anemic private sector. They are incorrect about World War II and give dangerous

War is bad for children, other living things, and the economy at Cafe Hayek : Paul Krugman (HT: John Papola) calls on history to justify more government spending:From an economic point of view World War II was, above all, a burst of deficit-financed government spending, on a scale that would never have been approved otherwise. Over the

Krugman's Improbable History: 1938 in 2010 at Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Economist Brad DeLong's Fair, Balanced, and Reality-Based Semi-Daily Journal : Paul Krugman:1938 in 2010: we weren’t supposed to find ourselves replaying the late 1930s. President Obama’s economists promised not to repeat the mistakes of 1937, when F.D.R. pulled back fiscal stimulus too soon. But by making his program too

Paul Krugman: 1938 in 2010 at Economist's View : In a deep recession, "the usual rules dont apply":1938 in 2010, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: Heres the situation: The U.S. economy has been crippled by a financial crisis. The presidents policies have limited the damage, but they were too

Wall Street Journal: Europe's bank stress tests minimized debt risks

2010-09-07T22:26:31Z

Wall Street Journal: Europe's bank stress tests minimized debt risks at House Price Crash News Blog

“Nevertheless, internationally active banks increased their exposures to Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, mainly as a result of rising off-balance sheet items.” Avdjiev, Upper and Kliest. Translation:In spite of the civilization ending consequences

Europe debt crisis: half-life of a bailout now only four months at The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind One Dime at a Time : Europe is in trouble again. Back in May the European Central Bank created a massive $1 Trillion bailout package for the countries on the fringe of Europe that were struggling with rising interest rates on their debts. Despite the enormous bailout package, interest

European Bond Spreads at Calculated Risk : After the WSJ story last night on the European stress tests, here is an update on a few European bond spreads: The 10-year Ireland-to-Germany bond spread has risen to 376 bps. This spread is larger than during the financial crisis in May when the spread peaked

Comment on Exposures of Foreign Banks to Euro Periphery by allan harris at Comments for The Irish Economy : “Nevertheless, internationally active banks increased their exposures to Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, mainly as a result of rising off-balance sheet items.” Avdjiev, Upper and Kliest. Translation:In spite of the civilization ending consequences

Incentivizing Sleep

2010-09-07T21:41:15Z

Incentivizing Sleep at Cheap Talk

Jeff Ely gives us the game theory of car sleeping:Whether it is desirable to have your kid fall asleep in the car goes through cycles as they age. Its lovely to have your infant fall asleep in the snap-out car carriers. Just move inside and the

Assorted links at Marginal Revolution : 1. Quantum physics chess.2. The culture that is China.3. Hugo Award winners (can any of you vouch for any of these?).4. Peter Orszag's first NYT column.5. Optimal sleep prizes for children.6. How does space flight change people?7. More evidence on how

Sleeping games in the car at Game Theorist : Jeff Ely gives us the game theory of car sleeping:Whether it is desirable to have your kid fall asleep in the car goes through cycles as they age. Its lovely to have your infant fall asleep in the snap-out car carriers. Just move inside and the

Sorkin: Lehman's Last Hours

2010-09-07T21:30:49Z

Sorkin: Lehman's Last Hours at DealBook

New e-mails and notes released as part of a commission's investigation provide a different version of the demise of Lehman Brothers, The New York Times's Andrew Ross Sorkin writes in his latest DealBook column.

CrowdQuery: Greatest Mistake of the Crisis ? at The Big Picture : In this morning’s NYT column — Lehmans Last Hours — Andrew Ross Sorkin wrote:“But what is clear is that the politics of the moment played a factor or at least was discussed among senior and junior staff in the decision not to lend to

Sorkin on Lehman Brothers at The Future of Capitalism :: Writings : Andrew Ross Sorkin channels some Wall Street conventional wisdom in a New York Times column arguing that "the decision not to lend to Lehman Brothers" was "perhaps the greatest mistake of the crisis." The most important word in those quotes is "perhaps."

Payroll Tax Holiday and the Trust Funds, by Arnold Kling

2010-09-07T21:06:28Z

Payroll Tax Holiday and the Trust Funds, by Arnold Kling at EconLog

The following is a guest post by a buy-side analyst working in a US asset management firm. The author’s comments are in italics. I welcome you feedback in the comments:Credit Demand May be Achilles Heel of U.S. Economy One of the most influential gauges

Link exchange at Free exchange : TODAY'S recommended economics writing:Why America is addicted to Olive Garden (Fast Company)Will a payroll tax cut stimulate the economy? (Mark Thoma)The end of unsustainable debt (Capital Gains and Games)Why the jump in broader unemployment? (Real Time Economics)The

Payroll Tax Holiday with a Twist at Macro and Other Market Musings : There is a lot of chatter right now about whether a payroll tax holiday would provide an effective stimulus to the slumbering U.S. economy. The motivation for this chatter is the news that the White House is considering, among other things, some kind

Obama surrenders on jobs at Clive Crook's blog : We will see what the president has to say in Cleveland on Wednesday–according to the Washington Post, he will pitch the R&D tax credit but no payroll-tax holiday: all told, a non-proposal, stimulus-wise. His speech on Monday already said, in effect,

Small Business Owners Speak Out at The Daily Reckoning : Just two business days after our post titled The War on Small Business, The Washington Post publishes an article headlined, Small Businesses Feel Squeezed by Obama Policies.As small businesses try to plot their recovery, it says, attention is turning to what

Can't Anybody Here Play This Game?: The Stimulus That Dare Not Speak Its Name at Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Economist Brad DeLong's Fair, Balanced, and Reality-Based Semi-Daily Journal : Jonathan Cohn:The Sad Absurdity of Our Economic Debate: Is the Obama Administration planning another major initiative to boost the economy? That depends on who is talking. And when. On Thursday afternoon, press secretary Robert Gibbs announced at his daily

Get ready for the battle over the third stimulus at John Lott's Website : It looks like Obama in moving towards a third stimulus package. Of course, the Obama administration doesn't want to count the $26 billion jobs bill as a stimulus.Obama dismissed a reporter who asked if he regrets calling the past months the summer of recovery.

links for 2010-09-03 at Economist's View : Economic consequences of speculative side bets: naked CDS - voxeuLow for long: A risky but necessary interest rate policy - voxeuHow illegal immigrants are helping Social Security - Edward Schumacher-MatosPayroll Tax Holiday with a Twist - David BeckworthThe

links for 2010-09-03 at Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Economist Brad DeLong's Fair, Balanced, and Reality-Based Semi-Daily Journal : The Employment Report: Weve Gone Essentially Nowhere in a Year - CBS MoneyWatch.comBooks: Alan Furst: Dark Star: Archive Entry From Brad DeLong's WebjournalDeLong: Books: Alan Furst: Dark Star: http://tinyurl.com/467ar #worthreadingPayroll Tax Holiday a Poor

Political recovery at Capital Gains and Games - Washington, Wall Street and Everything in Between : As Andrew Samwick says, today's job numbers are more of the same -- stagnant job growth that was too weak to to prevent the unemployment rate from edging up a tenth of a point to 9.6 percent. More depressing is the stagnation

It's not just the economy that's stagnant at Capital Gains and Games - Washington, Wall Street and Everything in Between : As Andrew Samwick says, today's job numbers are more of the same -- stagnant job growth that was too weak to to prevent the unemployment rate from edging up a tenth of a point to 9.6 percent. More depressing is the stagnation

Is a Payroll Tax Holiday a Good Idea? at Megan McArdle : That's the question of the day, now that a new article in the Washington Post indicates that the government is considering a package of business tax breaks to stimulate jobs ahead of the mid-terms, including a payroll tax holiday.Thoughts:1) Practically,

Morning Notes For September 1st 2010 at Trader's Narrative : The following is a guest post by a buy-side analyst working in a US asset management firm. The author’s comments are in italics. I welcome you feedback in the comments:Credit Demand May be Achilles Heel of U.S. Economy One of the most influential gauges

Should the Bush tax cuts be extended?

2010-09-07T21:02:57Z

Should the Bush tax cuts be extended? at Free exchange

This isn't getting worse more slowly. This is getting better::New York Times Company : Investors : Press Release: NEW YORK, Sep 03, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Peter Orszag, economist and former director of the Office of Management and Budget, will become a contributing

Obama's loss is the economy's gain at Calafia Beach Pundit : These two charts are arguably the most important of all the charts I've shown over the years, since they are predicting what could prove to be biggest political realignment of the American electorate in modern times. It's going to begin in just two months,

Finally! Somebody Else Worth Reading on the New York Times Op-Ed Page: Peter Orszag at Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Economist Brad DeLong's Fair, Balanced, and Reality-Based Semi-Daily Journal : This isn't getting worse more slowly. This is getting better::New York Times Company : Investors : Press Release: NEW YORK, Sep 03, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Peter Orszag, economist and former director of the Office of Management and Budget, will become a contributing

Scott Sumner and long term interest rates

2010-09-07T20:11:06Z

Scott Sumner and long term interest rates at The Money Demand

Scott Sumner writes:"I predicted that aggressive QE would raise long term interest rates, a view which seemed to be refuted by the response on T-bond yields to the March 2009 Fed QE announcement. <..> Any effective monetary stimulus would be expected to raise

Scott Sumner Makes a Mistake: Monetary Economics at Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Economist Brad DeLong's Fair, Balanced, and Reality-Based Semi-Daily Journal : Scott writes:TheMoneyIllusion » A few of my mistakes: 9. I predicted that aggressive QE would raise long term interest rates, a view which seemed to be refuted by the response on T-bond yields to the March 2009 Fed QE announcement....I’d like

The Fed Can Help, and Should Help, but Fiscal Policy Can Do Even More at Economist's View : The Fed has been under considerable pressure recently by those, me among them, who believe the Fed should use quantitative easing to lower long-term interest rates. However, a temporary investment tax credit can provide the same incentives for business

Housing Woes Bring New Cry: Let Market Crash

2010-09-07T20:04:57Z

Housing Woes Bring New Cry: Let Market Crash at Trendocracy

The unexpectedly deep plunge in home sales this summer is likely to force the Obama administration to choose between future homeowners and current ones, a predicament officials had been eager to avoid.Over the last 18 months, the administration has rolled out

Let the market crash? at Free exchange : THE New York Times has a weird piece today on housing market policy. It reads:The unexpectedly deep plunge in home sales this summer is likely to force the Obama administration to choose between future homeowners and current ones, a predicament officials had

The Housing Policy Debate at Out of Control : David Streitfeld has a pretty good article in The New York Times recapping the current state of the housing policy debate. He first notes that the current administration policies have epically failed:Over the last 18 months, the administration has rolled out

Letting the Housing Market Fall at The Big Picture : I have been arguing for the government to step away from propping up the housing market for several years now.It seems that economists are finally catching up with the idea. Today’s NYT has an article, titled Housing Woes Bring New Cry: Let Market Fall.

Streitfeld: Grim Housing Choice at Calculated Risk : From David Streitfeld at the NY Times: Grim Housing Choice: Help Todays Owners or Future Ones (ht Paul) Over the last 18 months, the administration has rolled out just about every program it could think of to prop up the ailing housing market ... The goal was