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Most recent posts

  • The Noisy Irritant Strikes Again!

    posted to Political Calculations on Tue 8th Oct 13

    Take a look at the following chart, a snapshot of the trading activity on 8 October 2013 through 2:02 PM EDT: Now, looking at that chart, we can identify 10:46 AM EDT as the approximate point in time, give or take a minute, at which the investors suddenly reacted

  • A Microrecession Dead Cat Bounce?

    posted to Political Calculations on Tue 8th Oct 13

    We may have been too optimistic last month in noting the end of a year-long period of microrecession in the U.S. economy. Here, we've been tracking the number of public U.S. companies that have been announcing decreases in their dividends each month. August

  • Nice Market You Have There. Shame If Something Should Happen To It.

    posted to Political Calculations on Mon 7th Oct 13

    We're not going to update our favorite chart this week, as we're still busy modifying it to cover the activity we anticipate into 2014. So instead, we thought we'd analyze the biggest market action, or non-action as the case really was, from last week! Our

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  • The end of low interest rates

    posted to Econbrowser on Sat 22nd Jun 13

    The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury securities averaged 1.8% during 2012, the lowest levels in 60 years. But that episode may now be behind us. Interest rate on 10-year Treasury security, April 1953 to May 2013. Source: FRED. The yield closed Friday above 2.5%,

  • Political Calculations: The Demand Curve for the U.S. Minimum Wage

    posted to Environmental Economics on Fri 8th Mar 13

    Why can't I blog like that? How much will President Obama's 2013 State of the Union proposal to increase the federal minimum wage to $9.00 per hour affect the teens and young adults who make up roughly half of all those who earn the minimum wage or less in

  • Wednesday links: invalid inferences

    posted to Abnormal Returns on Wed 19th Dec 12

    This is an early (and less complete) version of the linkfest. We will back at it tomorrow.Quote of the dayJeff Miller, “You cannot make valid inferences from one prior case.” (A Dash of Insight)Chart of the dayWhy are investors so darn calm? (Businessweek)MarketsAnatomy