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The S&P 500 Enters a Post-Transition Period

posted to Political Calculations on Mon 20th May 13

You have to admit - we were right. Last week was indeed a big week for the S&P 500! From Monday, 13 May 2013 to Friday, 17 May 2013, the S&P 500 rose by nearly 2%, or 32.35 points, from 1630.77 to a new record high of 1666.12. Over half the gain for
Austerity Done Wrong

posted to Political Calculations on Fri 17th May 13

Late in 2011, after realizing that Spain had run up an exceptionally large budget deficit for the year, exceeding 8.5% of the nation's entire GDP, the newly elected government of Mariano Rajoy set out to get Spain's fiscal situation under control. To do that,
Hauser's Law at Work in Spain

posted to Political Calculations on Thu 16th May 13

In 2012, after Spain's government had run up an extraordinary budget deficit in the previous year, the newly elected government of Spain's new prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, committed to both increase the government's revenue and to decrease its spending to

The Real Story Behind "Rising" U.S. Income Inequality

posted to Political Calculations on Wed 26th Oct 11

Why is income inequality rising for U.S. families and households, but not for individual Americans? Having now shown that there has been absolutely no significant change in the level of inequality among U.S. individual income earners from 1994 through 2010,
The Minimum Wage and Job Loss from 2006 through 2010

posted to Political Calculations on Wed 9th Mar 11

In 2006, the last full year in which the U.S. federal minimum wage was a constant value throughout the whole year, at least before 2010, approximately 6,595,383 individuals in the United States earned $7.25 per hour1 or less. For 2010, the first full year in
Dividends: U.S. Deeper in Recessionary Territory

posted to Political Calculations on Fri 9th Nov 12

As promised, we're updating our chart showing the number of publicly-traded companies that have acted to decrease their dividends through the end of October 2012 - providing what might perhaps be the simplest and best near-real time picture of the state of

Political Calculations: The Demand Curve for the U.S. Minimum Wage

posted to Environmental Economics on Fri 8th Mar 13

Why can't I blog like that? How much will President Obama's 2013 State of the Union proposal to increase the federal minimum wage to $9.00 per hour affect the teens and young adults who make up roughly half of all those who earn the minimum wage or less in
Wednesday links: invalid inferences

posted to Abnormal Returns on Wed 19th Dec 12

This is an early (and less complete) version of the linkfest. We will back at it tomorrow.Quote of the dayJeff Miller, “You cannot make valid inferences from one prior case.” (A Dash of Insight)Chart of the dayWhy are investors so darn calm? (Businessweek)MarketsAnatomy
Monday links: constant monitoring

posted to Abnormal Returns on Mon 10th Dec 12

If you havent signed up for our daily e-mail, what are you waiting for? Thousands of other Abnormal Returns readers already have.Quote of the dayAli Meshkati, “The constant monitoring and obsessive reasoning behind moves in a portfolio will never allow