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Moving to the NIESR blog..

posted to Not the Treasury view... on Thu 16th May 13

With the launch of the new NIESR website, my blog is moving to the NIESR blog here. Links below will redirect, and new posts will be posted there.
The impacts of immigration: my summary of the evidence (video)

posted to Not the Treasury view... on Sun 12th May 13

My summary of the economic evidence on immigration: labour markets, benefits, public services and the long-term impacts on growth and productivity (8 minutes):
White flight: "600,000 have quit London in a decade". The true figure is far higher

posted to Not the Treasury view... on Mon 6th May 13

The Daily Mail is rarely knowingly understated when it comes to a scare story, especially about immigration. However, sometimes ignorance of basic statistical concepts does the job for them. So it is for today's piece, "How rise of white flight is creating

The pasty tax could pay for a 30 billion infrastructure programme: four charts show why history will judge us harshly

posted to Not the Treasury view... on Sat 12th May 12

When I'm asked in interview or articles to sum up concisely why I think the government should change course on fiscal policy, I usually say something like this:"with long-term government borrowing as cheap as in living memory, with unemployed workers and plenty
Recessions and recoveries: a historical perspective

posted to Not the Treasury view... on Wed 25th Jan 12

Following the GDP numbers published January 25, here is a further updated version of NIESR's chart showing the path of recession and recovery in various previous downturns. The chart shows that this "depression" - defined, admittedly somewhat arbitrarily,
Comment on Reinhart and Rogoff's FT article

posted to Not the Treasury view... on Thu 2nd May 13

My letter to the FT responds to Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart's opinion piece (2 May):"In their article 'Austerity is not the only answer to a debt problem', Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart argue:"the debate needs to be reconnected to the facts. Let us start

Links for 05-03-2013

posted to Economist's View on Fri 3rd May 13

More services means longer recoveries - The Berkeley BlogComment on Reinhart and Rogoff's FT article - Jonathan PortesGovernment Spending Cuts Contribute to Slower Growth - NYTAll About Spherically Distributed Regression Errors - Dave GilesStolen from Brad's
Those Ultra-Keynesians at the National Review and the Wall Street Oped Pages

posted to EconoSpeak on Thu 2nd May 13

Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart makes this strange claim: Unfortunately, ultra-Keynesians are too dismissive of the risk of a rise in real interest rates. .No one fully understands why [real interest] rates have fallen so far so fast, and therefore no one can
Links for 04-05-2013

posted to Economist's View on Fri 5th Apr 13

Global Savings Glut? Global Risk-Tolerance Shortage? - Brad DeLongU.S. tax code isn't as progressive as you think - Dylan MatthewsScientists Decode Dreams With Brain Scans - WiredThis Is Not an Oil Spill - EconbrowserImmigration policy: a dialogue with Martin